Wednesday, July 1, 2015

The Ukraine Conflict: Where many ignore History, Chronology and Causality

It is difficult to engage in meaningful debates on the Conflict in Ukraine as emotions and agendas seem to be the rule, thwarting attempts at reasoning. People tend to argue with the intention to win, a form of debate that is a far-cry from dialectics, the form of exchange sought after by free-thinkers unshackled by secret agendas, sentimentality or  the comfort of ignorance. In a curious exchange with someone affected by the "refusal syndrome", I found myself telling him that  "you lack a sense of history, no awareness of chronology, causality and so forth. And above all accountability." Regrettable, but apparently, the point sunk.

In a situation where anybody who does not blindly stand on the side of the new Kiev authorities is branded a Russian troll, a Communist or anti-Western by those who support the deposal of Yanukovych as the president of Ukraine by the new authorities in Kiev, being a freethinker, especially someone who stands for a consensus, seems not to be fashionable at all.

For a starter, I am not a Yanukovych supporter. He was a thief. Like those before and after him, but at least, he won the freest election in Ukrainian history. The more than half of Ukraine that voted him to power did not participate in overthrowing him, and apparently, they were the working half of Ukraine (Look up a map of the GDP and GDP per capita) of Ukraine to understand what I am talking about.

On the Maidan/ What caused it?

Western position: Yanukovych refused to sign an association agreement with the EU (a demand which included the release of his rival Yulia Tymoshenko). 


Yanukovych's Position: The agreement was suicidal. That would have meant the deindustralization of the half of Ukraine that constituted his support base; the EU provided little financial support or incentives and it asked for reforms that would have dragged Ukraine down. In a nutshell, more pains than benefits in the short run, a pill to losing elections. And Ukraine was in a dire strait economically and financially. Russia offered relief in the form of loans, which he accepted.

Reaction: Yanukovych's opponents, a disproportionate majority from Galicia or Halycia (Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk), where xenophobic  nationalists constituted the vanguard(Right Sector, Svoboda etc), followed by a substantial proportion from other parts of Western  and Central Ukraine, as well as trickles from East/Southern Ukraine protested in the Maidan, supported by the physical presence of members of the US government (Victoria-Nuland of the executive, McCain of the Legislature etc.), members of the EU such as Catherine Ashton of EU foreign affairs, as well as other foreign European figures. In July 2014, the UK's The Daily Mail commented on the Ukrainian situation: "Don't look, either, to the EU, where the know-nothing former local council officer Lady Ashton, ludicrously in charge of foreign affairs, has poked the Russian bear with a puny stick by attempting to lure Ukraine into the Brussels fold. [82]". Also, the fact that European leaders like Angelina Merkel of Germany received the anti-Yanukovych forces (Oleh Tyahnybok, Vitali Klitschko, who is today the mayor of Ukraine and Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who is today the PM of Ukraine) and voiced her preference among the three Maidan leaders, a preference that contradicted that of Victoria Nuland of the USA, indicated that grand designs were afoot.

If we google up the BBC program on the Maidan snipers who started the shooting (at the police), called (parlance) agent-provocateur, resulting in a return fire (that I disapprove of still), it becomes apparent that the killings in Kiev Maidan square were orchestrated, meant to defile Yanulovych even further . Yanukovych, based on his words at the time and on a recent BBC interview stated that he did not give the order for the shooting, or call it, return shooting from the police. People died (protesters and police), and a consensus was sought, brokered by Western powers for a union government, early elections and the withdrawal of forces (government and protesters). Yanukovych fulfilled his part of the bargain, and the ultra-nationalists who formed the vanguard of the protest movement, apparently sidelined the three leaders of the protest movement, took advantage of Yanukovych's withdrawal of troops from Kiev, and then moved in on him. Yanukovych fled to Kharkiv (Kharkov) and the next day, his opponents in parliament, presided over a session that saw his supporters chased away/beaten/threatened/cajoled etc. The result of the votes that came out of it was one that produced a lower than accepted half of parliamentarian votes, deposing Yanukovych as the president of Ukraine, calling him a fugitive and asking for his arrest.

The question Yanukovych's supporters have been asking is  "What do we think would have happened had the ultra-nationalists gotten their hands on him? A Kaddafi scenario of course, many people say.

Most rational minds had expected those who brokered the agreement between Yanukovych and his opponents to oppose the unconstitutional takeover by Yanukovych's opponents; most rational minds expected the Western brokers to insist on the implementation of the accord. But since that did not happen, since the brokers gleefully  proclaimed that it was all void after those they supported forcefully took over the government, most rational minds  came to the conclusion that Yanukovych was tricked into a compromise or consensus that left him exposed to the whims of his opponents or enemies.

As Yanukovych said in his interview. Putin helped save his life by ordering Russian forces to help get him out of Ukraine. And as the new Ukrainian president Poroshenko said last week in his request to the country's judges "the removal of Yanukovych was unconstitutional". It is obvious he is preparing himself against another feared Maidan movement,  led again by the ultra-nationalists this time around some of whom have been vocalizing their intentions to seize power for themselves (another Maidan revolution, they call it).

Do I approve of Russia’s reaction to the deposal of Yanukovych the Kremlin did not fully trust?
No, I don't; just as I don't approve of Western interference in Ukrainian affairs before and after Yanukovych,  moves that undermined Ukraine's sovereignty in the process.

Did the people of Crimea fear the developments in Kiev and wanted to reunite with Russia?
Yes, the vast majority of the people of Crimea disapproved of Yanukovych's deposal, a person the  vast majority of Crimeans voted for.

Did Russia exploit the situation?
Yes, it did.

Did the people of Donbass (Donetsk and Lugansk) also oppose the unconstitutional deposal of Yanukovych?

Yes they did and were the most vocal about it; after all, he is their son and they voted overwhelmingly for him in the last presidential  elections that he won, considered by the world as the freest in Ukrainian history.

Were the people of these anti-Maidan provinces in Ukraine supported by Russian citizens (mostly Don Cossacks who straddle the borders with Russia)?

Yes, the reactionaries to Yanukovych's deposal had support from Russian citizens, some of  whom are/were of Ukrainian origin,  just like foreign citizens supported the Maidan protesters.

Did the Western-backed Poroshenko government act wisely by attacking the protest that morphed into a rebellion in  the Donbass provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk?

No, Yanukovych's opponents who seized power in Kiev acted unwisely. How would they have felt if the people of the East had overthrown former pro-western Ukrainian president Viktor Yuschenko?

Now, we understand why the two Ukrainian factions need to sit together and resolve their differences, taking account of each others' fears, concerns, dreams, hopes, pride, culture and ties; just the way South Africans did  two decades ago.

That is what rational, logical and humane minds would propose. No side in Ukraine can win against the other. Yanukovych  with his countless flaws understood that better than the flawed Poroshenko and the other heavily flawed symbols of Ukrainian nationalism.


Religious fundamentalism is the biggest threat to humanity today and  nations and peoples threatened by it need to be rational enough to put aside their petty differences and start working together to make the world safe and conducive for those who  are not intoxicated by the opium of  distortion of religion.


Taking from the quote from the French legend Charles DeGaulle who wrote "Patriotism is when love of your own people comes first; nationalism, when hate for people other than your own comes first.", I cannot help but wonder whether most Ukrainian nationalists are patriots.




Culled by Janvier T. Chando, author of “ Ukraine: The Tug-of-war between Russia and the West https://amazon.com/dp/B0B2T4XWWD/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_YWGHMQF2P1RE0PPJXH0…



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